Could Obama Win A Third Term Against Trump?
The short answer is there’s no way to tell for sure without an actual election.
But it’s fun to speculate on what we know now.
There is no question that Pres. Obama is a well-liked figure not only within his party but by independents as well.
But is that a sure ticket in being elected?
As we saw in the last election just getting votes is not the only consideration. Hillary Clinton ended up with 2.9 million more votes than Trump, but Trump had 77 more Electoral College votes than she did.
What Do We Really Vote For?
Having just run the two most disliked candidates in modern history we’ve learned one important lesson.
Elections are no longer popularity contests. Donald Trump is far from being a well-liked President-Elect.
What do we glean from this info? Did American voters vote for Trump or against Clinton or vice versa?
Did we vote for more of the same or a new direction? Jobs vs. entitlements?
Donald Trump won states he had no business winning. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are Democrat strongholds.
Would the result be the same against Obama? Or, would many Democrats stay home and not bother to vote thinking he was unbeatable?
Would the black or Hispanic vote be enough to put him over the top?
Would the evangelical vote have turned out in even bigger numbers supporting Trump?
We’ve seen a demonstration in the last election that the winner of the popular vote can get nearly 3 million more votes yet lose the Electoral College by a wide margin.
Obama won his second term with less support than his first.
He got the union vote, gay vote, college vote, black vote, Hispanic vote, women’s vote and the senior vote, and still only managed to only get 51.1 percent of the total vote.
Hardly seems like a slam-dunk to me. Especially if a couple of traditional states desert the party.
Some Final Thoughts
As I said at the beginning of this blog — There’s no way to accurately predict what might have happened had Trump and Obama locked horns rather than Obama and Romney.
Hillary was a shoo-in to be the next president. All the networks said so, the polls said so, but the voters said, “No Thank You.”
Was this election just a fluke? An accident.
Apparently the voters didn’t listen to the experts before or after the election.
I think the experts are doing the listening now.