Tom And Shane Predict 2018
Twenty seventeen is history and 2018 is a mystery. On the December 30th edition of Open for Business Tom and Shane dust off their crystal ball and take a look into what to look forward to in 2018.
Here are some of our best guesses.
#1 - GDP grows to 4% last three quarters of 2018. We both agreed that the tax cuts will have some affect on the economy and it would probably take six months for a noticeable increase.
#2 - 1,000,000 new jobs monthly by end of second quarter 2018. Tom disagreed with this prediction based on the current Labor Participation Rate that hasn’t moved much in spite of the wealth increase. Tom thinks automation will continue to eliminate jobs and that more people are choosing to stay out of the workplace.
#3 Trump infrastructure of $US 750 Billion tied to 10% tax on US Corp funds repatriated. Both Tom and Shane were apprehensive about infrastructure based on both Bush and Obama not being very successful with “shovel ready jobs.”
#4 Immigration will be redrawn in US - Dreamers stay undocumented deported the wall will be built for DACA. Tom and Shane suggested that Trump trade some softening on immigration in exchange for the wall. Chain migration will either end or be restricted.
#5 Trump calls for 30% tariff on all Chinese products entering US. Tom didn’t think a 30 percent tariff would work. Shane thought that a tariff would make it more profitable for companies to make products here. Tom agreed but said that a $1 spatula made in China would cost $3 if made in the US.
#6 Fed Rate raises to 2.3 to 3% by third quarter 2018. Both agreed this would probably happen.
#7 US oil rises to $US60 by summer and US surpasses 10 million barrels of oil a day in production. Depending on how the Keystone Pipeline plays out and the allowing of drilling in Anwar this will probably be a reality.
#8 DOW reaches 30k by fall of 2018 after a 10% correction in the summer. Both Tom and Shane feel that some kind of Dow correction is probable in 2018. Tom thought it would happen over the summer. How great will the correction be — is anyone’s guess.
#9 Cryptocurrency bubble burst resulting in consolidation leaving 150 standing. Both agreed that big changes are in store for this kind of currency. Tom wondered if it would eventually be the most popular country-to-country exchange medium.
#10 Military interventions in North Korea and/or Iran late 2018 after elections. Both agreed that nothing will happen to jepordize the November elections. After that depending on our relationship with China something may happen.
#11 Mulnuer Investigation ends with charges of obstruction of justice against the DNC, Obama Administrators, HRC and the Podesta Brothers. No charges against the Trump Clan. While Shane thought this might happen before the mid term elections Tom felt this is a lot like the Benghazi investigation of Hillary — it goes nowhere.
Some Final Thoughts
I’ll try to put this somewhere where I can find it and maybe we can review it at the end of 2018 to see our score.
Twenty seventeen was quite a year. But tomorrow we begin a brand new journey. We live in interesting times. Comments and your predictions below.