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Why Obama Will Win In November: Tom’s Opinion

(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In the movie, “A Christmas Carol,” Ebenezer Scrooge asks the ghost of Christmas present about the future of Tiny Tim. The ghost replies, “If these events remain unaltered there will be an empty chair at the table next Christmas.” I believe that if the election were held today, President Obama would be re-elected. And if current circumstances remain unaltered that won’t change in November.

I take a lot of abuse from my conservative friends for this belief, but it’s not based on emotion. It’s based on the reality of marketing, advertising and promotion. In those three areas the Democrats clearly do a much better job than the Republicans. Would I be a “happy camper” if the current president is re-elected — absolutely not. He is simply, hands down, the worst president in my lifetime, and I go back to Harry Truman in the 1940’s.

If I’m not an Obama fan, then why do I think he has the upper hand in the coming election? Let’s look at the various voting blocks to see how I think this election will play out.

Seniors

The visual of a Paul Ryan lookalike, pushing grannie off the cliff, was a very good marketing visual. That image, right or wrong, is the type of advertising that is very difficult to overcome and sticks in the mind of voters. Just stating facts to the contrary, is a very weak counter argument, and just won’t do it.

So, unless you want to have Romney at the bottom of the cliff, catching grannie in a Social Security safety net, there’s not much the Republicans can do. So far the Republicans have not produced, in my opinion, a message anywhere close to cancelling out the cliff message. The compound effect of that message is, that it also taints the local parties too. Both state and national candidates could be affected by this single ad.

Blacks and Hispanics

The president carried these groups in the last election and I see no evidence he won’t carry them again. The 25 largest cities are heavily populated with both groups. In these cities, the Democrats excel at turning out the vote in much greater numbers than Republicans. For every Republican limo that pulls up to the polls, a Democrat bus will be right behind it.

Unions

The Democrats have had the unions in their back pockets since the Kennedy days. And that’s the Democratic money machine. You only need look at the “Top Donors 1989-2012” to see where Democratic money is coming from.

Obviously not all union members are Democrats, but the rank and file worker has been so indoctrinated with fear, that Republican control will cost them all their hard won benefits. Unless Republicans want to vote in a 30-hour workweek, at 40-hour pay, I don’t see many union members jumping ship.

Gays, Lesbians, Bi-Sexual and Transgender

Is there really a need to even mention this group? Gay marriage will be on the ballots in many states come November. Considering the Republican position and the religious right on marriage and sin, there is no other place for these folks to go. Obama and the Democrats will be there to welcome them, and their votes, with open arms. Slam dunk.

The Youth Vote

Face facts. Obama is cool; Romney is not. It’s that simple. Obama is a marketing dream. He has added $5 trillion to the debt, no budget in three years, 8% unemployment that won’t come down any time soon and still has, as of today, a 48% approval rating. The Occupy Wall Street, liberal college professor recruiters, and fast food, hip-hop crowd will vote for the president in overwhelming numbers. IF — they are actually sober and remember when Election Day is. If they are sober, then you can ad the medical marijuana folks to this group as well.

Women

Republicans are “Pro-Life,” Democrats are “Pro-Death,” whoops, “Pro-Choice,” unless it comes to guns or light bulbs. In those cases, choice goes out the window. The Democrats enhanced their hold on women with the recent contraception funding debate with Catholic organizations. Another masterful marketing move on the Democrats part.

They solidified their hold on the pro-choice crowd, young college women like poster student Sandra Fluke are now indoctrinated, and the only group they really alienated was a group they don’t have any chance of getting — the religious right. So it was a win-win in their case. The president’s call to Fluke was the final nail in this coffin.

So does Romney have any groups in his corner?

There is no question that Romney will have a big hill to climb to win in November. As stated, he is not going to get Blacks, Hispanics, Gays, Pro-Choice, Unions, the Young or Seniors. Granted Romney will get a small percentage of some of these groups but will it be enough?

The Business Community

Romney should do well in the “fly over” states comprised of farmers and small business owners and their employees. Businesses are very concerned about jobs, where healthcare is going and the cost of increasing government regulations. Most feel Romney, with his business friendly background, will be more responsive to their needs. I think they will give him the benefit of the doubt based on what they’ve seen for the past three years.

The Military

There is no question that the Democrats are no fans of the military. There support is barely more than polite lip service. On my drive to the station during the Bush administration, rain or shine, anti-war demonstrators were on the courthouse lawn with signs and flags. Obama is elected and they haven’t been there since. Very clear that it wasn’t the war, but their perceived cause of the war, that was the target of their wrath. Bringing the troops home was the last thing on their minds.

I would have to give Ron Paul more credit than Romney for delivering the military to the Republican camp. Although, many of the entertainers who went to Iraq and Afghanistan to support the troops, were more right than left. So they get an honorable mention.

Men

Romney will probably carry men because a business leader is way more “macho” than a community organizer. Liberal men would be embarrassed to be wealthy, while conservative men would be more than happy to have more money than they could spend. Real men want to distribute their wealth, as they see fit, not what politician’s dictate. That’s positive thinking in my book.

Tea Party

I don’t believe Romney will receive much benefit from the Tea Party. These folks are more concerned with what’s happening in their own cities and state. Most feel Romney is not strong enough to go balls out against Obama and the Democrats.  No true, hard core, Tea Party voter wants Obama re-elected, but at the same time, they’re not sure Romney is the guy to turn things around. So, rather than vote for him as a sign of solidarity, there is a good chance they will leave his name blank in protest.

The Financial Community

This is Romney’s only hope for fund raising. The Democrats have the unions and the Republicans have big business. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any the Citizens United verdict has on the final money tally. I doubt corporations are going to waste money on election campaigns the way unions do.

The Religious Right

The United States of America is a Judeo-Christian country. Every town in America, of any size, has a church. Many of those people believe that the United States is a blessed nation. This is where many of the independents park their pick-ups. And, if they are motivated to turn out, this could be very positive for Romney and state and national Republican candidates. These folks are to the Republicans what the young are to the Democrats, very vocal but don’t always walk the walk on Election Day.

Some Final Thoughts

This election is not about the two candidates, but rather about “class warfare.” One side wants everyone to “pay” their fair share; the other side wants everyone to “keep” their fair share. It’s “free stuff” vs. “personal responsibility.” It’s “hand-up” vs. “handout.” It’s “safety net” vs. “hammock.”

Thirty percent of the population will vote Democrat and 30% will vote Republican. It’s that other 40% that will call the shots. This is the group that will decide your next president, congress and your local and state leaders.

Worst Case Scenario — things stay gridlocked for another four years. Best Case Scenario — a Republican house, Senate and President. Best Compromise — one party controls both houses and the other party controls the presidency. At least that way, bills would at least get to the president’s desk for either veto or signature.

When you color in the circles on the ballot in November, I would ask you to consider John F. Kennedy’s famous statement. “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country.”

My position? Do your research, then vote for the best man, or woman, for the job — regardless of party affiliation. Do that, and we’ll all be fine.

What’s Your Opinion??

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